According to JP Morgan Chase, the escalating coronavirus crisis in South Korea could peak on March 20 with about 10,000 infections.
” South Korea ‘s Covid-19 infection rate has not yet reached its peak. Assuming the 3% group was initially exposed among 2.4 million people in Daegu and the secondary infection rate was based on China ‘s virus curve , In the first phase of the spread, the peak of the cycle could be March 20, with the highest infection level being 10,000, “the investment bank said in a report published on February 24.
The prediction came as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to more than 1,000 with 12 deaths.
The report says the coronavirus epidemic will deal a blow to the economy.
JP Morgan previously forecast that Covid-19 would lead to a 1% decline in Korea’s GDP in the first quarter. Korea’s annual GDP growth forecast is cut to 2% from 2.3%.
“However, with the sudden and significant increase in cases, we see the risk of further reductions in GDP growth,” the report said.
The investment bank also hopes that local securities will simulate the situation at the time the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) broke out in May 2015.
The report noted that in the event of an acute Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in February 2003, the local market recovered quickly, as the virus was successfully prevented.
“However, the market takes more time to recover from MERS, as Korea becomes the country with the second most reported case. We believe that the Korean market will probably mimic the MERS period. and see further fluctuations until there are clear signs of anti-virus, ” Korea Times quoted the report.
JP Morgan expects that escalating COVID-19 issues will negatively impact the entire domestic market, causing potential disruptions in supply chains, domestic consumption, exports and foreign tourists. .
The report said banks, casinos, consumer goods, cars, petrochemicals and technology businesses could be negatively affected, while food and beverage, gaming, Internet and telecommunications companies had The impact is limited, due to the increasing number of people indoors.